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Week 122026 ยท Standard

WEEK CHECK

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Should I start Drew Lock or Sam Darnold in Week 12 (2026, Standard)?

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Drew Lock: His starting role depends on an unresolved quarterback injury. Confirm the starter before kickoff. His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. Sam Darnold: Confirmed unavailable; do not make a normal active-player recommendation. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Drew Lock ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked

Sam Darnold ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked

  • Drew Lock: 12.6 FP recent scoring average.
  • Drew Lock: 2.5% matchup reduction against SF.

Forecast updated ยท Standard

Why this pick?

Drew Lock

FF projection
2.4 FP
Sleeper
0.0 FP
FantasyPros
0.0 FP

Drew Lock faces SF in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 12.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%. Drew Lock is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Sam Darnold

FF projection
13.5 FP +2.1vs ESPN
ESPN
11.4 FP
Sleeper
13.8 FP
FantasyPros
16.0 FP
Boosted Trees
12.4 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Sam Darnold faces SF in Week 12. Recent scoring average: 15.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.

Drew Lock: His starting role depends on an unresolved quarterback injury. Confirm the starter before kickoff. His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. Sam Darnold: Confirmed unavailable; do not make a normal active-player recommendation. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 3:20 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
17.225.0
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Joe BurrowQB ยท CIN vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    25.0Expected FP
  2. 2
    Caleb WilliamsQB ยท CHI vs DETThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.1Expected FP
  3. 3
    Jayden DanielsQB ยท WAS vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
    22.8Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full QB rankings โ†—

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