Should I start Juwan Johnson or Tyler Warren? (Half-PPR Week 12 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Tyler Warren

Week 12 · Half-PPR

Tyler Warren has the higher current FF forecast: 7.9 FP versus 7.4 FP. The 0.5-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Tyler Warren: 5.1 FP recent scoring average.
Juwan Johnson: 5.8 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:01 AM ET · Half-PPR

THE ALTERNATIVE

Juwan Johnson

TE · NOStats & schedule

7.4FF projected

↑ +1.7 vs ESPN

at CIN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

FF PICK

Tyler Warren

TE · INDStats & schedule

7.9FF projected

↑ +0.6 vs ESPN

vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

9.615.4

FF MEAN

1
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs WASSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.6Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 14.2
15.2Expected FP
2
Brock BowersTE · LV vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.8Sleeper 15.4FantasyPros 11.2
14.4Expected FP
3
Colston LovelandTE · CHI vs DETThu 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.0Sleeper 9.6FantasyPros 12.2
12.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.