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Should I start Kyler Murray or Tyson Bagent? (Standard Week 11 2026)

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Kyler Murray: Kirk Cousins is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. Tyson Bagent: Caleb Williams is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Kyler Murray ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked

Tyson Bagent ยท Starter role checked

  • Kyler Murray: 16.9 FP recent scoring average.
  • Kyler Murray: 2.5% matchup reduction against SF.

Forecast updated ยท Standard

Why this pick?

Kyler Murray

FF projection
0.0 FP
Sleeper
0.0 FP
FantasyPros
0.0 FP
Boosted Trees
14.8 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Kyler Murray faces SF in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 16.9 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%. NOT_STARTING

Tyson Bagent

FF projection
0.0 FP
Sleeper
0.0 FP
FantasyPros
0.0 FP
Boosted Trees
-0.1 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Tyson Bagent faces NO in Week 11. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%. NOT_STARTING

Kyler Murray: Kirk Cousins is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. Tyson Bagent: Caleb Williams is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 3:44 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
19.524.8
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Joe BurrowQB ยท CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    24.4Expected FP
  2. 2
    Josh AllenQB ยท BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    24.4Expected FP
  3. 3
    C.J. StroudQB ยท HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    22.3Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full QB rankings โ†—

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