Should I start Deebo Samuel Sr. or Keaton Mitchell? (Standard Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Keaton Mitchell

Week 11 · Standard

Keaton Mitchell has the higher current FF forecast: 4.9 FP versus 4.7 FP. The 0.2-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Keaton Mitchell: 3.5 FP recent scoring average.
Keaton Mitchell: 3.75% matchup lift against NYJ.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 2:12 PM ET · Standard

THE ALTERNATIVE

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR · SFStats & schedule

4.7FF projected

↓ -1.7 vs ESPN

vs MIN

Sun 8:20 PM ET

FF PICK

Keaton Mitchell

RB · LACStats & schedule

4.9FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

vs NYJ

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Your next decision

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FEATURED · YOUR NEXT MOVE

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

11.819.0

FF MEAN

1
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.0Sleeper 17.5FantasyPros 15.3
17.6Expected FP
2
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.1Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 13.4
17.1Expected FP
3
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.9Sleeper 18.2FantasyPros 17.0
16.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.