Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Dontayvion Wicks? (Standard Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Aaron Jones Sr.

+1.3 projected edge · Standard

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Dontayvion Wicks for Week 11 Standard: 5.8 projected points versus 4.6.

Dontayvion Wicks: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Dontayvion Wicks · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Aaron Jones Sr.: 2.9 FP recent scoring average.
Aaron Jones Sr.: 2.5% matchup reduction against SF.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 5:45 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

5.8FF projected

↑ +0.2 vs ESPN

at SF

Sun 8:20 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Dontayvion Wicks

WR · PHIStats & schedule

4.6FF projected

↓ -0.4 vs ESPN

vs PIT

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 5.8 FP +0.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.7 FP
Sleeper: 6.2 FP
FantasyPros: 7.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Aaron Jones Sr. faces SF in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 2.9 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.

Dontayvion Wicks

FF projection: 4.6 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.0 FP
Sleeper: 4.1 FP
FantasyPros: 4.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.3 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Dontayvion Wicks faces PIT in Week 11. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 3.75%. Dontayvion Wicks is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 5.8 points, 1.3 more than Dontayvion Wicks.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 5:45 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Dontayvion Wicks?

Aaron Jones Sr. holds a 1.3 FP projected edge over Dontayvion Wicks. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Aaron Jones Sr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 5.8 FP forecast in Standard at SF. His recorded recent scoring average is 2.9 FP, putting this forecast 2.9 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 2.5%; it is already included in the projection.

Dontayvion Wicks

Dontayvion Wicks has a 4.6 FP forecast in Standard against PIT. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 3.75%; it is already included in the projection. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Dontayvion Wicks	Projected edge
ESPN	5.7 FP	5.0 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +0.7
Sleeper	6.2 FP	4.1 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.0
FantasyPros	7.1 FP	4.9 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.2
Boosted Trees	6.8 FP	4.3 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.5

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 8:20 PM ET. Dontayvion Wicks: Sun 1:00 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

11.819.0

FF MEAN

1
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.0Sleeper 17.0FantasyPros 15.3
17.4Expected FP
2
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs DALSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.1Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 13.4
17.1Expected FP
3
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.9Sleeper 18.1FantasyPros 17.0
16.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 11