
Should I start Adam Randall or Sam Roush? (PPR Week 11 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Sam Roush
Week 11 ยท PPR
Sam Roush has the higher current FF forecast: 1.9 FP versus 1.5 FP. The 0.4-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- Sam Roush: 1.4 FP recent scoring average.
- Sam Roush: 2.5% matchup lift against NO.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Sam Roush
TE ยท CHIStats & schedule โบAdam Randall
- The CAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 10%.
Sam Roush
- Recent scoring average: 1.4 FP.
- The NO defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 2.5%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.3 targets per game.
Adam Randall
- FF projection
- 1.5 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.2 FP
- FantasyPros
- 2.0 FP
Adam Randall faces CAR in Week 11. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.
Sam Roush
- FF projection
- 1.9 FP +0.8vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 1.1 FP
- Sleeper
- 2.6 FP
- FantasyPros
- 2.4 FP
Sam Roush faces NO in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 1.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
CeeDee LambWR ยท DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.1Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 21.924.0Expected FP - 2
Ja'Marr ChaseWR ยท CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.6Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 20.122.9Expected FP - 3
Tee HigginsWR ยท CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.7Sleeper 17.3FantasyPros 16.020.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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