Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Michael Mayer? (PPR Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Michael Mayer

+0.5 projected edge · PPR

Start Michael Mayer over Aaron Jones Sr. for Week 11 PPR: 8.8 projected points versus 8.3.

Michael Mayer: 7.1 FP recent scoring average.
Michael Mayer: 7.5% matchup lift against DEN.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 12:50 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Michael Mayer

TE · LVStats & schedule

8.8FF projected

↑ +1.2 vs ESPN

at DEN

Sun 4:25 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

8.3FF projected

↑ +0.3 vs ESPN

at SF

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Why this pick?

Michael Mayer

FF projection: 8.8 FP +1.3vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.5 FP
Sleeper: 6.9 FP
FantasyPros: 9.3 FP

Michael Mayer faces DEN in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 7.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 8.3 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.9 FP
Sleeper: 8.4 FP
FantasyPros: 9.9 FP

Aaron Jones Sr. faces SF in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 4.2 fantasy points.

Michael Mayer projects for 8.8 points in PPR scoring, 0.5 more than Aaron Jones Sr.. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 12:50 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Michael Mayer?

Michael Mayer holds a 0.5 FP projected edge over Aaron Jones Sr.. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros project Aaron Jones Sr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 8.3 FP forecast in PPR at SF. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.2 FP, putting this forecast 4.0 points above that average.

Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer has a 8.8 FP forecast in PPR at DEN. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.1 FP, putting this forecast 1.7 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 7.5%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Michael Mayer	Projected edge
ESPN	7.9 FP	7.5 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +0.4
Sleeper	8.4 FP	6.9 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +1.6
FantasyPros	9.9 FP	9.3 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +0.6

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 8:20 PM ET. Michael Mayer: Sun 4:25 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

20.127.3

FF MEAN

1
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.2Sleeper 21.8FantasyPros 21.5
24.0Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 27.3Sleeper 22.7FantasyPros 21.1
23.9Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.6Sleeper 20.2FantasyPros 20.1
23.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 11