Should I start Theo Johnson or Tim Patrick in Week 11 (2026, Half-PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Start Theo Johnson

+1.5 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Theo Johnson over Tim Patrick for Week 11 Half-PPR: 1.7 projected points versus 0.2.

Theo Johnson: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.
Theo Johnson: 1.25% matchup reduction against JAC.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 7:02 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Theo Johnson

TE · NYGStats & schedule

1.7FF projected

↑ +0.9 vs ESPN

vs JAC

Sun 4:25 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tim Patrick

WR · NYJStats & schedule

0.2FF projected

at LAC

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Why this pick?

Theo Johnson

FF projection: 1.7 FP +0.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.8 FP
Sleeper: 2.5 FP
FantasyPros: 2.4 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Theo Johnson faces JAC in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.

Tim Patrick

FF projection: 0.2 FP
Sleeper: 0.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tim Patrick faces LAC in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%.

Theo Johnson projects for 1.7 points in half-PPR scoring, 1.5 more than Tim Patrick. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 7:02 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.125.7

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 25.7Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 19.7
22.3Expected FP
2
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.6Sleeper 17.1FantasyPros 17.6
19.2Expected FP
3
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.9Sleeper 21.4FantasyPros 18.9
18.8Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.