Should I start Roman Wilson or Tanner Conner? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Roman Wilson

Tanner Conner is on bye in Week 11 and projects for 0.0 FP. Roman Wilson has a scheduled game and projects for 4.2 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Roman Wilson: 7.5% matchup lift against PHI.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:59 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Roman Wilson

WR · PITStats & schedule

4.2FF projected

at PHI

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tanner Conner

TE · NEStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

BYE

Check bye / schedule

Why this pick?

Roman Wilson

FF projection: 4.2 FP
Sleeper: 3.6 FP
FantasyPros: 4.3 FP
Boosted Trees: -0.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Roman Wilson faces PHI in Week 11. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Tanner Conner

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

BYE

Tanner Conner is on bye in Week 11 and projects for 0.0 FP. Roman Wilson has a scheduled game and projects for 4.2 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:59 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.625.7

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 25.7Sleeper 20.7FantasyPros 19.7
22.5Expected FP
2
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.6Sleeper 18.1FantasyPros 17.6
19.5Expected FP
3
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.8Sleeper 16.6FantasyPros 17.8
18.8Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.