Should I start Payne Durham or Tyrell Shavers? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Tyrell Shavers

+1.5 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Tyrell Shavers over Payne Durham for Week 11 Half-PPR: 1.8 projected points versus 0.4.

Tyrell Shavers: 5% matchup reduction against MIA.
Payne Durham: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 6:23 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Tyrell Shavers

WR · BUFStats & schedule

1.8FF projected

vs MIA

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Payne Durham

TE · TBStats & schedule

0.4FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

at DET

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Tyrell Shavers

FF projection: 1.8 FP
Sleeper: 1.9 FP

Tyrell Shavers faces MIA in Week 11. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.

Payne Durham

FF projection: 0.4 FP +0.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.3 FP
Sleeper: 0.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Payne Durham faces DET in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Tyrell Shavers projects for 1.8 points in half-PPR scoring, 1.5 more than Payne Durham. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 6:23 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.525.7

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
Mean 22.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 25.7Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.7
22.5Expected FP
2
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.6Sleeper 17.5FantasyPros 17.6
19.4Expected FP
3
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.8Sleeper 18.1FantasyPros 17.8
19.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.