
Should I start Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Jared Goff
+0.7 projected edge ยท Half-PPR
Start Jared Goff over Kirk Cousins for Week 11 Half-PPR: 16.5 projected points versus 15.9.
Jared Goff ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked
Kirk Cousins ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked
- Jared Goff: 10.8 FP recent scoring average.
- Jared Goff: 1.25% matchup reduction against TB.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



Kirk Cousins
QB ยท MINStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Jared Goff
- FF projection
- 16.5 FP +2.6vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 13.9 FP
- Sleeper
- 16.2 FP
- FantasyPros
- 19.5 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 18.0 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Jared Goff faces TB in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 10.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.
Kirk Cousins
- FF projection
- 15.9 FP +3.2vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 12.7 FP
- Sleeper
- 15.8 FP
- FantasyPros
- 17.8 FP
Kirk Cousins faces SF in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 20.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
QB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB ยท BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.7Sleeper 26.9FantasyPros 22.925.0Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB ยท CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.9Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 22.524.5Expected FP - 3
C.J. StroudQB ยท HOU vs INDThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.4Sleeper 19.5FantasyPros 19.622.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
More Week 11 decisions
Jared Goff16.5projected FP
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Cam Ward16.9projected FP
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Baker Mayfield15.7projected FP
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Geno Smith15.4projected FP
Josh Allen25.0projected FP
Joe Burrow24.5projected FP
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C.J. Stroud22.4projected FP
C.J. Stroud22.4projected FP
Patrick Mahomes II21.6projected FP
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Caleb Williams20.9projected FP
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Dak Prescott20.8projected FP
Dak Prescott20.8projected FP
Jayden Daniels20.5projected FP