
Should I start DJ Moore or Michael Mayer? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)
THE FF CALL
Start DJ Moore
+4.2 projected edge ยท Half-PPR
Start DJ Moore over Michael Mayer for Week 11 Half-PPR: 10.8 projected points versus 6.6.
- DJ Moore: 9.8 FP recent scoring average.
- DJ Moore: 5% matchup reduction against MIA.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



Michael Mayer
TE ยท LVStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
DJ Moore
- FF projection
- 10.8 FP -0.5vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 11.3 FP
- Sleeper
- 11.7 FP
- FantasyPros
- 11.0 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 11.2 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
DJ Moore faces MIA in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 9.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.
Michael Mayer
- FF projection
- 6.6 FP +1.0vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 5.6 FP
- Sleeper
- 5.2 FP
- FantasyPros
- 7.2 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 6.3 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Michael Mayer faces DEN in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 5.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB ยท KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 25.7Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.722.6Expected FP - 2
CeeDee LambWR ยท DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.7Sleeper 18.1FantasyPros 17.619.5Expected FP - 3
James Cook IIIRB ยท BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.8Sleeper 17.6FantasyPros 17.819.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK
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