
Should I start Dare Ogunbowale or KhaDarel Hodge? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Dare Ogunbowale
Week 11 ยท Half-PPR
Dare Ogunbowale has the higher current FF forecast: 0.4 FP versus 0.3 FP. The 0.1-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- Dare Ogunbowale: 0.4 FP recent scoring average.
- Dare Ogunbowale: 5% matchup lift against IND.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



KhaDarel Hodge
WR ยท SFStats & schedule โบDare Ogunbowale
- Recent scoring average: 0.4 FP.
- The IND defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 5%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.0 carries per game.
KhaDarel Hodge
- Recent scoring average: 2.2 FP.
- The MIN defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.3 targets per game.
Dare Ogunbowale
- FF projection
- 0.4 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.5 FP
- Boosted Trees
- -0.5 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Dare Ogunbowale faces IND in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 5%.
KhaDarel Hodge
- FF projection
- 0.3 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.0 FP
KhaDarel Hodge faces MIN in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 2.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
CeeDee LambWR ยท DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.6Sleeper 17.3FantasyPros 18.119.5Expected FP - 2
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.9Sleeper 20.6FantasyPros 18.918.6Expected FP - 3
James Cook IIIRB ยท BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.8Sleeper 18.3FantasyPros 16.518.6Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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