
Should I start Brock Wright or KeAndre Lambert-Smith in Week 11 (2026, Half-PPR)?
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Week 11 ยท Half-PPR
KeAndre Lambert-Smith has the higher current FF forecast: 1.1 FP versus 0.8 FP. The 0.3-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith: 2.8 FP recent scoring average.
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith: 2.5% matchup reduction against NYJ.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR ยท LACStats & schedule โบBrock Wright
- Recent scoring average: 0.0 FP.
- Last 3 recorded games: 1.7 targets per game.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
- Recent scoring average: 2.8 FP.
- The NYJ defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 2.5%.
- Last 2 recorded games: 4.5 targets per game.
Brock Wright
- FF projection
- 0.8 FP +0.4vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.4 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.4 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 1.6 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Brock Wright faces TB in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
- FF projection
- 1.1 FP +0.7vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.4 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.5 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 0.4 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
KeAndre Lambert-Smith faces NYJ in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 2.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB ยท KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 25.7Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 19.722.3Expected FP - 2
CeeDee LambWR ยท DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 19.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.6Sleeper 17.1FantasyPros 17.619.2Expected FP - 3
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.9Sleeper 21.4FantasyPros 18.918.8Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
More Week 11 decisions
KeAndre Lambert-Smith1.1projected FP
De'Zhaun Stribling2.5projected FP
KeAndre Lambert-Smith1.1projected FP
Isaiah Williams1.1projected FP
KeAndre Lambert-Smith1.1projected FP
Harrison Wallace III1.0projected FP
KeAndre Lambert-Smith1.1projected FP
Lil'Jordan Humphrey1.0projected FP
CeeDee Lamb19.2projected FP
Ja'Marr Chase18.8projected FP
Ja'Marr Chase18.8projected FP
Tee Higgins16.9projected FP
Tee Higgins16.9projected FP
Amon-Ra St. Brown15.9projected FP
Amon-Ra St. Brown15.9projected FP
Malik Nabers14.0projected FP
Malik Nabers14.0projected FP
Chris Olave13.6projected FP
Chris Olave13.6projected FP
George Pickens13.6projected FP