
Should I start Alvin Kamara or Kimani Vidal? (Half-PPR Week 11 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Kimani Vidal
Week 11 ยท Half-PPR
Kimani Vidal has the higher current FF forecast: 6.3 FP versus 6.1 FP. The 0.2-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- Kimani Vidal: 4.0 FP recent scoring average.
- Kimani Vidal: 3.75% matchup lift against NYJ.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



Kimani Vidal
RB ยท LACStats & schedule โบAlvin Kamara
- Recent scoring average: 8.1 FP.
- Last 3 recorded games: 5.7 carries per game.
Kimani Vidal
- Recent scoring average: 4.0 FP.
- The NYJ defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 3.75%.
- Last 3 recorded games: 6.7 carries per game.
Alvin Kamara
- FF projection
- 6.1 FP -0.8vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 6.9 FP
- Sleeper
- 4.6 FP
- FantasyPros
- 6.3 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 6.1 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Alvin Kamara faces CHI in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 8.1 fantasy points.
Kimani Vidal
- FF projection
- 6.3 FP -1.5vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 7.8 FP
- Sleeper
- 6.7 FP
- FantasyPros
- 5.1 FP
- Boosted Trees
- 7.4 FP
- Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Kimani Vidal faces NYJ in Week 11. Recent scoring average: 4.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
RB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB ยท KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 25.7Sleeper 21.0FantasyPros 19.722.6Expected FP - 2
James Cook IIIRB ยท BUF vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.8Sleeper 16.6FantasyPros 17.818.8Expected FP - 3
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs TBSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.9Sleeper 20.6FantasyPros 18.918.6Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK
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Kimani Vidal6.3projected FP
Aaron Jones Sr.7.2projected FP
Kimani Vidal6.3projected FP
Kenny Gainwell6.3projected FP
Kimani Vidal6.3projected FP
Justice Hill6.6projected FP
Kimani Vidal6.3projected FP
Audric Estime5.9projected FP
Kenneth Walker III22.6projected FP
James Cook III18.8projected FP
James Cook III18.8projected FP
Jahmyr Gibbs18.6projected FP
Jahmyr Gibbs18.6projected FP
Tony Pollard18.4projected FP
Tony Pollard18.4projected FP
D'Andre Swift17.3projected FP
D'Andre Swift17.3projected FP
Javonte Williams17.1projected FP
Javonte Williams17.1projected FP
Jonah Coleman16.4projected FP