THE ALTERNATIVE
Payne Durham
TE ยท TBStats & schedule โบ0.6FF projected
โ +0.1 vs ESPN
at CARSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start Payne Durham or Tim Patrick this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Tim Patrick
Week 7 ยท Standard
Tim Patrick averaged 3.0 targets per game across the last 2 recorded games, compared with 0.3 for Payne Durham. More opportunities provide another route to fantasy points. Recent scoring favors Tim Patrick: 2.0 versus 0.2 FP per game.
Forecast updated ยท Standard
at CARRESEARCH PICK
Tim Patrick
WR ยท NYJStats & schedule โบ0.9FF projected
= 0.0 vs ESPN
vs MIASun 1:00 PM ET
Payne Durham
FF0.6 FP
Boosted Trees1.2 FP
Workload0.5 FP
Monte Carlo0.5 FP
- Recent scoring average: 0.2 FP.
- The CAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 1.25%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.6 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Baker Mayfield; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.3 targets per game.
Tim Patrick
FF0.9 FP
Boosted Trees0.9 FP
Workload1.7 FP
Monte Carlo1.7 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 2.0 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 2.0 FP.
- The MIA defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 1.4 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Kene Nwangwu, Breece Hall; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 2 recorded games: 3.0 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Payne Durham
Fortified0.6
ESPN0.6
Sleeper0.7
FantasyProsโ
Payne Durham faces CAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.
Tim Patrick
Fortified0.9
ESPN1.0
Sleeper1.1
FantasyProsโ
Tim Patrick faces MIA in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 2.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
Your next decision
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