THE ALTERNATIVE
Pat Freiermuth
TE ยท PITStats & schedule โบ6.8FF projected
โ +0.2 vs ESPN
at NOSun 9:30 AM ET
Should I start Pat Freiermuth or Rico Dowdle this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Rico Dowdle
Week 7 ยท Standard
Rico Dowdle receives the better positional matchup adjustment (10% versus 2.5%).
Forecast updated ยท Standard
at NORESEARCH PICK
Rico Dowdle
RB ยท PITStats & schedule โบ7.3FF projected
โ +1.0 vs ESPN
at NOSun 9:30 AM ET
Pat Freiermuth
FF6.8 FP
Boosted Trees5.4 FP
Workload5.3 FP
Monte Carloโ FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 8.4 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 2.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 8.4 FP.
- The NO defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 2.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 4.6 targets and 0.4 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Rico Dowdle; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 5.0 targets per game.
Rico Dowdle
FF7.3 FP
Boosted Trees5.2 FP
Workload6.7 FP
Monte Carloโ FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 4.9 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.6 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 4.9 FP.
- The NO defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 10%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 2.7 targets and 7.5 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Rico Dowdle; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 7.3 carries per game.
Projection breakdown
Pat Freiermuth
Fortified6.8
ESPN6.7
Sleeper6.1
FantasyProsโ
Pat Freiermuth faces NO in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 8.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.
Rico Dowdle
Fortified7.3
ESPN6.3
Sleeper7.3
FantasyProsโ
Rico Dowdle faces NO in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 4.9 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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