THE ALTERNATIVE
Kaelon Black
RB ยท SFStats & schedule โบ4.5FF projected
โ -1.1 vs ESPN
at ATLSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start Kaelon Black or Tez Johnson this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Tez Johnson
Week 7 ยท Standard
Recent scoring favors Tez Johnson: 3.3 versus 2.2 FP per game.
Forecast updated ยท Standard
at ATLRESEARCH PICK
Tez Johnson
WR ยท TBStats & schedule โบ4.5FF projected
โ -1.4 vs ESPN
at CARSun 1:00 PM ET
Kaelon Black
FF4.5 FP
Boosted Trees4.5 FP
Workload5.6 FP
Monte Carlo5.7 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 2.2 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.6 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 2.2 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 7.5 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 6.7 carries per game.
Tez Johnson
FF4.5 FP
Boosted Trees5.7 FP
Workload5.0 FP
Monte Carlo5.0 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 3.3 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate up 0.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 3.3 FP.
- The CAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 4.0 targets and 0.4 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Baker Mayfield; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 2.0 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Kaelon Black
Fortified4.5
ESPN5.7
Sleeper4.5
FantasyProsโ
Kaelon Black faces ATL in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 2.2 fantasy points.
Tez Johnson
Fortified4.5
ESPN5.9
Sleeper3.7
FantasyProsโ
Tez Johnson faces CAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 3.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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