
Should I start Jake Ferguson or Will Mallory this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Will Mallory
Week 7 ยท Standard
Will Mallory averaged 6.0 targets per game across the last 1 recorded games, compared with 4.3 for Jake Ferguson. More opportunities provide another route to fantasy points. Recent scoring favors Will Mallory: 2.0 versus 1.4 FP per game.
Forecast updated ยท Standard

THE ALTERNATIVE

3.4FF projected
โ +0.1 vs ESPN
Mon 8:15 PM ET
RESEARCH PICK

Will Mallory
TE ยท INDStats & schedule โบ3.3FF projected
โ -1.1 vs ESPN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
Jake Ferguson
FF3.4 FP
Boosted Trees3.8 FP
Workload2.8 FP
Monte Carlo2.9 FP
- Recent scoring average: 1.4 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 3.6 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.3 targets per game.
Will Mallory
FF3.3 FP
Boosted Trees4.8 FP
Workload3.3 FP
Monte Carlo3.3 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 2.0 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 2.0 FP.
- The MIN defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 5.0 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 1 recorded games: 6.0 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Jake Ferguson
Fortified3.4
ESPN3.3
Sleeper4.7
FantasyProsโ
Jake Ferguson faces PHI in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.4 fantasy points.
Will Mallory
Fortified3.3
ESPN4.3
Sleeper2.9
FantasyProsโ
Will Mallory faces MIN in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 2.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
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