RESEARCH PICK
Ian Thomas
TE ยท LVStats & schedule โบ1.0FF projected
โ +0.3 vs ESPN
vs LARSun 4:25 PM ET
Should I start Ian Thomas or Payne Durham this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Ian Thomas
Week 7 ยท Standard
Ian Thomas averaged 1.0 targets per game across the last 3 recorded games, compared with 0.3 for Payne Durham. More opportunities provide another route to fantasy points. Recent scoring favors Ian Thomas: 3.4 versus 0.2 FP per game.
Forecast updated ยท Standard
vs LARTHE ALTERNATIVE
Payne Durham
TE ยท TBStats & schedule โบ0.6FF projected
โ +0.1 vs ESPN
at CARSun 1:00 PM ET
Ian Thomas
FF1.0 FP
Boosted Trees0.6 FP
Workload0.8 FP
Monte Carlo0.9 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 3.4 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.7 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 3.4 FP.
- The LAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.8 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Mike Washington Jr.; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 1.0 targets per game.
Payne Durham
FF0.6 FP
Boosted Trees1.2 FP
Workload0.5 FP
Monte Carlo0.5 FP
- Recent scoring average: 0.2 FP.
- The CAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 1.25%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.6 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Baker Mayfield; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.3 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Ian Thomas
Fortified1.0
ESPN0.7
Sleeper0.3
FantasyProsโ
Ian Thomas faces LAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 3.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
Payne Durham
Fortified0.6
ESPN0.6
Sleeper0.7
FantasyProsโ
Payne Durham faces CAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.
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