THE ALTERNATIVE
Ian Thomas
TE ยท LVStats & schedule โบ1.0FF projected
โ +0.3 vs ESPN
vs LARSun 4:25 PM ET
Should I start Ian Thomas or Jonnu Smith this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Jonnu Smith
Week 7 ยท Standard
Jonnu Smith receives the better positional matchup adjustment (10% versus -8.75%).
Forecast updated ยท Standard
vs LARRESEARCH PICK
Jonnu Smith
TE ยท GBStats & schedule โบ1.4FF projected
โ +0.2 vs ESPN
at DETSun 4:25 PM ET
Ian Thomas
FF1.0 FP
Boosted Trees0.6 FP
Workload0.8 FP
Monte Carlo0.9 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 3.4 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.7 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 3.4 FP.
- The LAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.8 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Mike Washington Jr.; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 1.0 targets per game.
Jonnu Smith
FF1.4 FP
Boosted Trees1.8 FP
Workload0.7 FP
Monte Carlo0.9 FP
- Recent scoring average: 0.6 FP.
- The DET defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 10%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Bo Melton; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.3 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Ian Thomas
Fortified1.0
ESPN0.7
Sleeper0.3
FantasyProsโ
Ian Thomas faces LAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 3.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
Jonnu Smith
Fortified1.4
ESPN1.1
Sleeper1.4
FantasyProsโ
Jonnu Smith faces DET in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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