THE ALTERNATIVE
Deion Burks
WR ยท INDStats & schedule โบ0.4FF projected
โ +0.4 vs ESPN
at MINSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start Deion Burks or DeVonta Smith this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start DeVonta Smith
Week 7 ยท Standard
DeVonta Smith averaged 11.7 targets per game across the last 3 recorded games, compared with 2.0 for Deion Burks. More opportunities provide another route to fantasy points. Recent scoring favors DeVonta Smith: 13.5 versus 1.8 FP per game. DeVonta Smith receives the better positional matchup adjustment (6.25% versus -3.75%).
Forecast updated ยท Standard
at MINRESEARCH PICK
DeVonta Smith
WR ยท PHIStats & schedule โบ0.0FF projected
= 0.0 vs ESPN
vs DALMon 8:15 PM ET
Deion Burks
FF0.4 FP
Boosted Trees-0.1 FP
Workload0.8 FP
Monte Carlo0.8 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.8 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.8 FP.
- The MIN defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 3.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.9 targets and 0.2 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 2.0 targets per game.
DeVonta Smith
FF0.0 FP
Boosted Trees9.5 FP
Workload0.0 FP
Monte Carloโ FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 13.5 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 13.5 FP.
- The DAL defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 6.25%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.0 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra, Eli Stowers; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- OUT
- Last 3 recorded games: 11.7 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Deion Burks
Fortified0.4
ESPN0.0
Sleeper0.7
FantasyProsโ
Deion Burks faces MIN in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 3.75%.
DeVonta Smith
Fortified0.0
ESPN0.0
Sleeper0.0
FantasyProsโ
DeVonta Smith faces DAL in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 13.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 6.25%. OUT
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