THE ALTERNATIVE
AJ Dillon
RB · CARStats & schedule ›2.0FF projected
↓ -0.6 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start AJ Dillon or Jalen Brooks this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Jalen Brooks
Week 7 · Standard
Recent scoring favors Jalen Brooks: 1.5 versus 0.7 FP per game. Jalen Brooks receives the better positional matchup adjustment (-2.5% versus -8.75%).
Forecast updated · Standard
vs TBRESEARCH PICK
Jalen Brooks
WR · ARIStats & schedule ›2.5FF projected
↓ -0.6 vs ESPN
vs DENSun 4:05 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF2.0 FP
Boosted Trees1.9 FP
Workload2.4 FP
Monte Carlo2.3 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 0.7 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 0.7 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
Jalen Brooks
FF2.5 FP
Boosted Trees3.4 FP
Workload2.6 FP
Monte Carlo2.6 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.5 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate up 0.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.5 FP.
- The DEN defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 2.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 3.0 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Carson Beck; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 3.3 targets per game.
AJ Dillon
Fortified2.0
ESPN2.6
Sleeper1.9
FantasyPros—
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
Jalen Brooks
Fortified2.5
ESPN3.1
Sleeper1.9
FantasyPros—
Jalen Brooks faces DEN in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.
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