RESEARCH PICK
AJ Dillon
RB · CARStats & schedule ›0.0FF projected
↓ -2.6 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start AJ Dillon or Drew Ogletree this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start AJ Dillon
Week 7 · Standard
Recent scoring favors AJ Dillon: 0.7 versus 0.1 FP per game.
Forecast updated · Standard
vs TBTHE ALTERNATIVE
Drew Ogletree
TE · INDStats & schedule ›0.4FF projected
= 0.0 vs ESPN
at MINSun 1:00 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF0.0 FP
Boosted Trees1.9 FP
Workload2.4 FP
Monte Carlo2.3 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 0.7 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 0.7 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- INACTIVE
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
Drew Ogletree
FF0.4 FP
Boosted Trees1.1 FP
Workload0.3 FP
Monte Carlo0.2 FP
- Recent scoring average: 0.1 FP.
- The MIN defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.5 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 0.3 targets per game.
AJ Dillon
Fortified0.0
ESPN2.6
Sleeper0.0
FantasyPros—
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%. INACTIVE
Drew Ogletree
Fortified0.4
ESPN0.4
Sleeper0.5
FantasyPros—
Drew Ogletree faces MIN in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
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