THE ALTERNATIVE
AJ Barner
TE · SEAStats & schedule ›4.1FF projected
↓ -0.3 vs ESPN
vs KCSun 8:20 PM ET
Should I start AJ Barner or Michael Mayer this week? Week 7 Standard (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Michael Mayer
Week 7 · Standard
Michael Mayer averaged 6.7 targets per game across the last 3 recorded games, compared with 4.0 for AJ Barner. More opportunities provide another route to fantasy points. Recent scoring favors Michael Mayer: 6.0 versus 1.6 FP per game.
Forecast updated · Standard
vs KCRESEARCH PICK
Michael Mayer
TE · LVStats & schedule ›4.2FF projected
↓ -0.4 vs ESPN
vs LARSun 4:25 PM ET
AJ Barner
FF4.1 FP
Boosted Trees4.9 FP
Workload3.6 FP
Monte Carlo3.5 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.6 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.6 FP.
- The KC defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 4.2 targets and 0.1 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Drew Lock; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 targets per game.
Michael Mayer
FF4.2 FP
Boosted Trees4.3 FP
Workload5.9 FP
Monte Carlo6.0 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 6.0 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.9 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 6.0 FP.
- The LAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 5.4 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Mike Washington Jr.; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 6.7 targets per game.
AJ Barner
Fortified4.1
ESPN4.4
Sleeper4.6
FantasyPros—
AJ Barner faces KC in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 5%.
Michael Mayer
Fortified4.2
ESPN4.5
Sleeper3.9
FantasyPros—
Michael Mayer faces LAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 6.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
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