Should I start J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix Jr. this week? Week 9 PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Michael Penix Jr.

Week 9 · PPR

The displayed FF scores are tied. Michael Penix Jr. gets the tiebreaker: FF is -0.9 FP versus ESPN, compared with -2.6 for J.J. McCarthy. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.

Forecast updated Nov 4, 2026, 8:25 AM ET · PPR

THE ALTERNATIVE

J.J. McCarthy

QB · NYGStats & schedule

14.9FF projected

↓ -2.6 vs ESPN

at PHI

Sun 1:00 PM ET

FF PICK

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATLStats & schedule

14.9FF projected

↓ -0.9 vs ESPN

vs CIN

Sun 9:30 AM ET

Your next decision

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SEE THE WHOLE SEASON

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A plan for the playoffs.

What the video shows

An example roster is shown in a weekly usage grid. A proposed plan changes the lineup week by week, then compares projected weekly and playoff points before and after the plan. The example totals illustrate the tool; they are not a promise of gains for your team.

WEEK 9PLAYOFFS ♛

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position · WEEK 9 · PPR

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

19.423.4

FF MEAN

1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs ATLSun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.4Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 21.3
23.4Expected FP
2
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.1Sleeper 21.7FantasyPros 22.3
22.6Expected FP
3
Jared GoffQB · DET vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 19.6FantasyPros 19.9
20.9Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.