
Should I start Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes II this week? Week 9 PPR (2026)
THE FF CALL
Start Brock Purdy
+2.9 projected edge ยท PPR
Start Brock Purdy over Patrick Mahomes II for Week 9 PPR: 22.6 projected points versus 19.8.
- Brock Purdy: 14.7 FP recent scoring average; 3.75% matchup lift against LV.
- Patrick Mahomes II: 14.0 FP recent scoring average.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Patrick Mahomes II
QB ยท KCStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy faces LV in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 14.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.
Patrick Mahomes II
Patrick Mahomes II faces NYJ in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 14.0 fantasy points.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท ยท WEEK 9 ยท PPR
QB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Joe BurrowQB ยท CIN vs ATLSun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailableMean 23.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.4Sleeper 20.3FantasyPros 21.323.4Expected FP - 2
Brock PurdyQB ยท SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.1Sleeper 21.7FantasyPros 22.322.6Expected FP - 3
Jared GoffQB ยท DET vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 19.4Sleeper 19.6FantasyPros 19.920.9Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
More Week 9 decisions
Brock Purdy22.6projected FP
Joe Burrow23.4projected FP
Brock Purdy22.6projected FP
Jared Goff20.9projected FP
Brock Purdy22.6projected FP
Dak Prescott20.4projected FP
Brock Purdy22.6projected FP
Malik Willis19.7projected FP
Jared Goff20.9projected FP
Dak Prescott20.4projected FP
Dak Prescott20.4projected FP
Patrick Mahomes II19.8projected FP
Patrick Mahomes II19.8projected FP
Malik Willis19.7projected FP
Malik Willis19.7projected FP
Trevor Lawrence19.3projected FP
Trevor Lawrence19.3projected FP
Matthew Stafford19.1projected FP
Matthew Stafford19.1projected FP
Jayden Daniels19.1projected FP