
Should I start AJ Dillon or Seth McGowan this week? Week 7 PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Seth McGowan
Week 7 ยท PPR
Seth McGowan averaged 5.0 carries per game across the last 3 recorded games, compared with 4.0 for AJ Dillon. More opportunities provide another route to fantasy points. Recent scoring favors Seth McGowan: 3.5 versus 1.7 FP per game.
Forecast updated ยท PPR

THE ALTERNATIVE

2.7FF projected
โ -0.6 vs ESPN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
RESEARCH PICK

Seth McGowan
RB ยท INDStats & schedule โบ2.5FF projected
โ -0.2 vs ESPN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF2.7 FP
Boosted Trees2.3 FP
Workload3.0 FP
Monte Carlo2.9 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.7 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.5 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.7 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
Seth McGowan
FF2.5 FP
Boosted Trees2.2 FP
Workload3.2 FP
Monte Carlo3.2 FP
- Recent scoring average: 3.5 FP.
- The MIN defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 10%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.8 targets and 4.1 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 5.0 carries per game.
Projection breakdown
AJ Dillon
Fortified2.7
ESPN3.3
Sleeper2.5
FantasyProsโ
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
Seth McGowan
Fortified2.5
ESPN2.7
Sleeper3.0
FantasyProsโ
Seth McGowan faces MIN in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 3.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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