RESEARCH PICK
AJ Dillon
RB · CARStats & schedule ›0.0FF projected
↓ -3.3 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start AJ Dillon or Michael Carter this week? Week 7 PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start AJ Dillon
Week 7 · PPR
Recent scoring favors AJ Dillon: 1.7 versus 0.0 FP per game. AJ Dillon receives the better positional matchup adjustment (-7.5% versus -8.75%).
Forecast updated · PPR
vs TBTHE ALTERNATIVE
Michael Carter
RB · TENStats & schedule ›0.1FF projected
vs CLESun 1:00 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF0.0 FP
Boosted Trees2.3 FP
Workload3.0 FP
Monte Carlo2.9 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.7 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.5 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.7 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- INACTIVE
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
Michael Carter
FF0.1 FP
Boosted Trees— FP
Workload0.0 FP
Monte Carlo— FP
- Recent scoring average: 0.0 FP.
- The CLE defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.0 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Calvin Ridley, Tyjae Spears; their availability can redistribute the workload.
AJ Dillon
Fortified0.0
ESPN3.3
Sleeper0.0
FantasyPros—
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%. INACTIVE
Michael Carter
Fortified0.1
ESPN—
Sleeper0.1
FantasyPros—
Michael Carter faces CLE in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
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