THE ALTERNATIVE
AJ Dillon
RB ยท CARStats & schedule โบ2.7FF projected
โ -0.6 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start AJ Dillon or Davis Allen this week? Week 7 PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Davis Allen
Week 7 ยท PPR
Davis Allen receives the better positional matchup adjustment (2.5% versus -7.5%).
Forecast updated ยท PPR
vs TBRESEARCH PICK
Davis Allen
TE ยท LARStats & schedule โบ2.7FF projected
= 0.0 vs ESPN
at LVSun 4:25 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF2.7 FP
Boosted Trees2.3 FP
Workload3.0 FP
Monte Carlo2.9 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.7 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.5 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.7 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
Davis Allen
FF2.7 FP
Boosted Trees3.7 FP
Workload2.4 FP
Monte Carlo2.3 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.5 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate up 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.5 FP.
- The LV defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 2.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 1.3 targets and 0.2 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Puka Nacua; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 1.3 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
AJ Dillon
Fortified2.7
ESPN3.3
Sleeper2.5
FantasyProsโ
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
Davis Allen
Fortified2.7
ESPN2.7
Sleeper2.7
FantasyProsโ
Davis Allen faces LV in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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