
Should I start Kyle Pitts Sr. or Sam LaPorta this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)
THE FF CALL
Start Sam LaPorta
+2.0 projected edge ยท Half-PPR
Start Sam LaPorta over Kyle Pitts Sr. for Week 9 Half-PPR: 10.3 projected points versus 8.3.
- Sam LaPorta: 3.6 FP recent scoring average.
- Sam LaPorta: 7.5% matchup lift against MIA.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR



Kyle Pitts Sr.
TE ยท ATLStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta faces MIA in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 3.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Kyle Pitts Sr. faces CIN in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 10.9 fantasy points.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
TE. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Brock BowersTE ยท LV vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 14.7Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 13.915.2Expected FP - 2
George KittleTE ยท SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 14.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.3Sleeper 12.8FantasyPros 12.614.1Expected FP - 3
Trey McBrideTE ยท ARI vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 12.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 10.8Sleeper 11.7FantasyPros 11.912.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK
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