THE ALTERNATIVE
Justice Hill
RB ยท BALStats & schedule โบ5.5FF projected
โ +0.6 vs ESPN
vs CINSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start Justice Hill or Michael Mayer this week? Week 7 Half-PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Michael Mayer
Week 7 ยท Half-PPR
Recent scoring favors Michael Mayer: 8.6 versus 4.9 FP per game.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR
vs CINRESEARCH PICK
Michael Mayer
TE ยท LVStats & schedule โบ6.0FF projected
โ -0.4 vs ESPN
vs LARSun 4:25 PM ET
Justice Hill
FF5.5 FP
Boosted Trees4.1 FP
Workload5.0 FP
Monte Carlo5.4 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 4.9 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.7 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 4.9 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 2.7 targets and 2.2 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 1.7 carries per game.
Michael Mayer
FF6.0 FP
Boosted Trees5.8 FP
Workload8.0 FP
Monte Carlo8.1 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 8.6 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 1.2 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 8.6 FP.
- The LAR defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 8.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 5.4 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Mike Washington Jr.; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 6.7 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Justice Hill
Fortified5.5
ESPN4.9
Sleeper6.4
FantasyProsโ
Justice Hill faces CIN in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 4.9 fantasy points.
Michael Mayer
Fortified6.0
ESPN6.5
Sleeper5.5
FantasyProsโ
Michael Mayer faces LAR in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 8.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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