THE ALTERNATIVE
Jake Ferguson
TE ยท DALStats & schedule โบ4.9FF projected
โ +0.3 vs ESPN
at PHIMon 8:15 PM ET
Should I start Jake Ferguson or Kaelon Black this week? Week 7 Half-PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Kaelon Black
Week 7 ยท Half-PPR
The available paired forecasts favor Kaelon Black after combining their estimates. The saved inputs do not isolate a stronger football-specific advantage, so treat this as a narrow research lean.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR
at PHIRESEARCH PICK
Kaelon Black
RB ยท SFStats & schedule โบ4.9FF projected
โ -1.1 vs ESPN
at ATLSun 1:00 PM ET
Jake Ferguson
FF4.9 FP
Boosted Trees5.1 FP
Workload4.0 FP
Monte Carlo4.1 FP
- Recent scoring average: 2.8 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 3.6 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.3 targets per game.
Kaelon Black
FF4.9 FP
Boosted Trees4.6 FP
Workload5.9 FP
Monte Carlo6.0 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 2.4 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.9 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 2.4 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 7.5 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 6.7 carries per game.
Projection breakdown
Jake Ferguson
Fortified4.9
ESPN4.6
Sleeper6.3
FantasyProsโ
Jake Ferguson faces PHI in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 2.8 fantasy points.
Kaelon Black
Fortified4.9
ESPN6.0
Sleeper5.0
FantasyProsโ
Kaelon Black faces ATL in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 2.4 fantasy points.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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