Should I start DeVonta Smith or J. Michael Sturdivant this week? Week 7 Half-PPR (2026)

DeVonta Smith

• His prior three-game scoring average was 17.0 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.9 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
• Recent scoring average: 17.0 FP.
• The DAL defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 6.25%.
• The saved workload scenario allocates 0.0 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
• Return scenarios include Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra, Eli Stowers; their availability can redistribute the workload.
• OUT
• Last 3 recorded games: 11.7 targets per game.

J. Michael Sturdivant

Middle 80% scoring range: -2.9–4.6 FP

• Recent scoring average: 0.0 FP.
• The DET defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 8.75%.
• The saved workload scenario allocates 0.4 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
• Return scenarios include Bo Melton; their availability can redistribute the workload.
• Last 3 recorded games: 0.3 targets per game.