Should I start Dallas Goedert or Mike Gesicki this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Mike Gesicki

+0.5 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Mike Gesicki over Dallas Goedert for Week 9 Half-PPR: 8.1 projected points versus 7.5.

Dallas Goedert: 7.2 FP recent scoring average.
Mike Gesicki: 11.3 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Mike Gesicki

TE · CINStats & schedule

8.1FF projected

↑ +1.3 vs ESPN

at ATL

Sun 9:30 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

7.5FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Mike Gesicki

Fortified8.1

ESPN6.8

Sleeper8.6

FantasyPros7.2

Boosted TreesExperimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET6.5

Mike Gesicki faces ATL in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 11.3 fantasy points.

Dallas Goedert

Fortified7.5

ESPN6.7

Sleeper7.8

FantasyPros7.7

Boosted TreesExperimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET6.7

Dallas Goedert faces NYG in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 7.2 fantasy points.

Mike Gesicki projects for 8.1 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.5 more than Dallas Goedert. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Mike Gesicki?

Mike Gesicki holds a 0.5 FP projected edge over Dallas Goedert. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: FantasyPros, Boosted Trees lean toward Dallas Goedert, while Sleeper leans toward Mike Gesicki. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 7.5 FP forecast in Half-PPR against NYG. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.2 FP, putting this forecast 0.3 points above that average.

Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki has a 8.1 FP forecast in Half-PPR at ATL. His recorded recent scoring average is 11.3 FP, putting this forecast 3.3 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Mike Gesicki	Projected edge
ESPN	6.7 FP	6.8 FP	Effectively level
Sleeper	7.8 FP	8.6 FP	Mike Gesicki +0.7
FantasyPros	7.7 FP	7.2 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.5
Boosted Trees	6.7 FP	6.5 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.3

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Mike Gesicki: Sun 9:30 AM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position · WEEK 9 · Half-PPR

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

10.815.3

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.7Sleeper 15.3FantasyPros 13.9
15.2Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 13.3Sleeper 12.8FantasyPros 12.6
14.1Expected FP
3
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.8Sleeper 11.6FantasyPros 11.9
12.0Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 9