Should I start Dallas Goedert or KC Concepcion Jr. this week? Week 9 Half-PPR (2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: KC Concepcion Jr.

+0.5 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start KC Concepcion Jr. over Dallas Goedert for Week 9 Half-PPR: 8.1 projected points versus 7.5.

Dallas Goedert: 7.2 FP recent scoring average.
KC Concepcion Jr.: 10.1 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 4, 2026, 11:58 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

KC Concepcion Jr.

WR · CLEStats & schedule

8.1FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

at NO

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

7.5FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

KC Concepcion Jr.

Fortified8.1

ESPN8.6

Sleeper8.2

FantasyPros8.2

Boosted TreesExperimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET7.5

KC Concepcion Jr. faces NO in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 10.1 fantasy points.

Dallas Goedert

Fortified7.5

ESPN6.7

Sleeper7.8

FantasyPros7.7

Boosted TreesExperimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET6.7

Dallas Goedert faces NYG in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 7.2 fantasy points.

KC Concepcion Jr. projects for 8.1 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.5 more than Dallas Goedert. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 4, 2026, 11:58 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and KC Concepcion Jr.?

KC Concepcion Jr. holds a 0.5 FP projected edge over Dallas Goedert. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project KC Concepcion Jr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 7.5 FP forecast in Half-PPR against NYG. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.2 FP, putting this forecast 0.3 points above that average.

KC Concepcion Jr.

KC Concepcion Jr. has a 8.1 FP forecast in Half-PPR at NO. His recorded recent scoring average is 10.1 FP, putting this forecast 2.0 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	KC Concepcion Jr.	Projected edge
ESPN	6.7 FP	8.6 FP	KC Concepcion Jr. +1.9
Sleeper	7.8 FP	8.2 FP	KC Concepcion Jr. +0.3
FantasyPros	7.7 FP	8.2 FP	KC Concepcion Jr. +0.5
Boosted Trees	6.7 FP	7.5 FP	KC Concepcion Jr. +0.8

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 1:00 PM ET. KC Concepcion Jr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position · WEEK 9 · Half-PPR

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

19.025.1

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs MIASun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.2Sleeper 23.1FantasyPros 23.7
25.1Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs ARISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.0Sleeper 21.2FantasyPros 20.0
21.1Expected FP
3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.5Sleeper 19.9FantasyPros 19.6
20.5Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 9