Should I start Brady Russell or Zach Ertz this week? Week 7 Half-PPR (2026)

Brady Russell

Middle 80% scoring range: -2.6–3.5 FP

• His prior three-game scoring average was 0.0 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.5 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
• Recent scoring average: 0.0 FP.
• The KC defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 2.5%.
• The saved workload scenario allocates 0.2 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
• Return scenarios include Drew Lock; their availability can redistribute the workload.
• Last 3 recorded games: 0.0 carries per game.

Zach Ertz

• His prior three-game scoring average was 2.3 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 1.0 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
• Recent scoring average: 1.1 FP.
• The saved workload scenario allocates 1.5 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
• Return scenarios include Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra, Eli Stowers; their availability can redistribute the workload.
• Last 3 recorded games: 2.7 targets per game.