THE ALTERNATIVE
AJ Dillon
RB ยท CARStats & schedule โบ2.3FF projected
โ -0.6 vs ESPN
vs TBSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start AJ Dillon or Tyler Goodson this week? Week 7 Half-PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Tyler Goodson
Week 7 ยท Half-PPR
Tyler Goodson receives the better positional matchup adjustment (0% versus -7.5%).
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR
vs TBRESEARCH PICK
Tyler Goodson
RB ยท DALStats & schedule โบ2.7FF projected
โ -0.4 vs ESPN
at PHIMon 8:15 PM ET
AJ Dillon
FF2.3 FP
Boosted Trees2.4 FP
Workload2.7 FP
Monte Carlo2.7 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 1.2 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 1.2 FP.
- The TB defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 7.5%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.7 targets and 3.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 4.0 carries per game.
Tyler Goodson
FF2.7 FP
Boosted Trees2.4 FP
Workload3.0 FP
Monte Carlo2.9 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 0.9 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 0.9 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 0.9 targets and 3.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 1.7 carries per game.
Projection breakdown
AJ Dillon
Fortified2.3
ESPN3.0
Sleeper2.2
FantasyProsโ
AJ Dillon faces TB in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 1.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.
Tyler Goodson
Fortified2.7
ESPN3.1
Sleeper3.1
FantasyProsโ
Tyler Goodson faces PHI in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 0.9 fantasy points.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
Your next decision
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