Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Sam Darnold this week? Week 8 Half-PPR (2026)

THE RESEARCH PICK

Start Sam Darnold

Week 8 · Half-PPR

Sam Darnold receives the better positional matchup adjustment (1.25% versus -1.25%).

Forecast updated Oct 28, 2026, 12:16 AM ET · Half-PPR

THE ALTERNATIVE

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PITStats & schedule

15.0FF projected

↓ -0.1 vs ESPN

vs CLE

Sun 1:00 PM ET

RESEARCH PICK

Sam Darnold

QB · SEAStats & schedule

15.3FF projected

↑ +0.5 vs ESPN

vs CHI

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Experimental research pick, not a proven win probability. This does not change either FF projection.

Aaron Rodgers

FF15.0 FP

Boosted Trees15.2 FP

Workload15.1 FP

Monte Carlo15.2 FP

Middle 80% scoring range: 6.4–24.2 FP

His prior three-game scoring average was 19.0 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 1.0 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
Recent scoring average: 17.0 FP.
The CLE defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 1.25%.
The saved workload scenario allocates 0.0 targets and 1.6 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
Return scenarios include Ben Skowronek; their availability can redistribute the workload.
Last 3 recorded games: 40.0 pass attempts per game.

Sam Darnold

FF15.3 FP

Boosted Trees16.5 FP

Workload14.2 FP

Monte Carlo14.8 FP

Middle 80% scoring range: 6.2–23.6 FP

His prior three-game scoring average was 9.7 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate up 1.1 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
Recent scoring average: 11.1 FP.
The CHI defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 1.25%.
The saved workload scenario allocates 0.0 targets and 1.6 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
Return scenarios include Drew Lock, Rashid Shaheed, Velus Jones Jr., Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price; their availability can redistribute the workload.
Last 3 recorded games: 34.0 pass attempts per game.

Experimental models are research signals, not a validated tiebreaker yet. Missing saved results stay blank. No simulations or training were run for this request.

Aaron Rodgers

Fortified15.0

ESPN15.1

Sleeper15.6

FantasyPros14.9

Aaron Rodgers faces CLE in Week 8. Recent scoring average: 17.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.

Sam Darnold

Fortified15.3

ESPN14.8

Sleeper14.9

FantasyPros16.6

Sam Darnold faces CHI in Week 8. Recent scoring average: 11.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.

Sam Darnold projects for 15.3 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.3 more than Aaron Rodgers. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Oct 28, 2026, 12:16 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.