THE ALTERNATIVE
Aaron Jones Sr.
RB ยท MINStats & schedule โบ12.8FF projected
โ +1.9 vs ESPN
vs INDSun 1:00 PM ET
Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Trey McBride this week? Week 7 Half-PPR (2026)
THE RESEARCH PICK
Start Trey McBride
Week 7 ยท Half-PPR
The available paired forecasts favor Trey McBride after combining their estimates. The saved inputs do not isolate a stronger football-specific advantage, so treat this as a narrow research lean.
Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR
vs INDRESEARCH PICK
Trey McBride
TE ยท ARIStats & schedule โบ12.6FF projected
โ +0.3 vs ESPN
vs DENSun 4:05 PM ET
Aaron Jones Sr.
FF12.8 FP
Boosted Trees9.5 FP
Workload12.9 FP
Monte Carlo14.2 FP
- His prior three-game scoring average was 16.0 FP. Compared with holding recent form level with the forecast, that scoring history shifts the tree estimate down 0.9 FP. This isolates model sensitivity, not a guaranteed football outcome.
- Recent scoring average: 16.0 FP.
- The IND defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 3.75%.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 4.5 targets and 12.7 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Last 3 recorded games: 20.7 carries per game.
Trey McBride
FF12.6 FP
Boosted Trees15.6 FP
Workload11.2 FP
Monte Carlo11.2 FP
- Recent scoring average: 10.8 FP.
- The saved workload scenario allocates 9.6 targets and 0.0 carries. These are conditional estimates, not confirmed opportunities.
- Return scenarios include Carson Beck; their availability can redistribute the workload.
- Last 3 recorded games: 10.3 targets per game.
Projection breakdown
Aaron Jones Sr.
Fortified12.8
ESPN10.9
Sleeper11.8
FantasyProsโ
Aaron Jones Sr. faces IND in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 16.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.
Trey McBride
Fortified12.6
ESPN12.3
Sleeper11.9
FantasyProsโ
Trey McBride faces DEN in Week 7. Recent scoring average: 10.8 fantasy points.
Actuals, projections & playoff outlook
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