Who should I pick up: Jake Ferguson or Michael Mayer?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

THE PICKUP CALL

Too close for a points-only pickup

Jake Ferguson and Michael Mayer are effectively tied for Week 8. Your open slot, bye coverage and how long you plan to keep the pickup should decide this one.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 12:12 PM ET · Standard

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL · vs ARI

Stats & schedule ›

4.2FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

47.8%rostered on ESPN-1.30 pp recent change

THE ALTERNATIVE

Michael Mayer

TE · LV · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

4.1FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

23.8%rostered on ESPN-0.60 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

This comparison needs more than the headline projection. Michael Mayer is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a TE vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson projects for 4.2 Standard points against ARI this week. His recent scoring average is 1.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 47.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 1.30 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 4.2 FP
ESPN: 3.4 FP
Sleeper: 6.3 FP
FantasyPros: 4.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.1 FP
Workload: 2.5 FP
Monte Carlo: 2.6 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: -0.4–7.0 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer projects for 4.1 Standard points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 4.3 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 2.5%. He is rostered in 23.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.60 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 4.1 FP
ESPN: 3.9 FP
Sleeper: 4.2 FP
FantasyPros: 4.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.7 FP
Workload: 4.6 FP
Monte Carlo: 4.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: -0.1–11.5 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 30, 11:30 AM ET / Oct 30, 11:30 AM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Jake Ferguson	Michael Mayer
Next 3 weeks	11.0 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	11.1 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	35.0 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	38.6 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	14.2 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	16.3 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Jake Ferguson	Michael Mayer
Week 8	4.2 FPvs ARIHigher projection	4.1 FPvs NYJ
Week 9	3.5 FPvs IND	3.7 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 10	3.3 FPvs SF	3.3 FPvs SEA
Week 11	3.5 FPvs TENHigher projection	3.4 FPvs DEN
Week 12	3.4 FPvs PHI	3.7 FPvs CLEHigher projection
Week 13	2.9 FPvs SEAHigher projection	BYE
Week 14	BYE	4.1 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 15	3.1 FPvs LAR	3.5 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 16	3.5 FPvs JAC	4.2 FPvs TENHigher projection
Week 17	3.5 FPvs NYG	4.7 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 18	4.1 FPvs WASHigher projection	3.8 FPvs KC

Outlook updated Oct 30, 12:26 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · TE

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

4.3 FP7.9 FP

Brenton StrangeTE · 48.2% rostered
7.2
Chig OkonkwoTE · 13.7% rostered
6.0
Mason TaylorTE · 10.7% rostered
5.3
Pat FreiermuthTE · 49.8% rostered
4.9
Tyler HigbeeTE · 13.2% rostered
4.7

More TE pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

TE · Week 8

Chig Okonkwo4.8projected FP

Tyler Higbee4.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗TE · Week 8

Mason Taylor6.1projected FP

Pat Freiermuth5.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗TE · Week 8

Chig Okonkwo4.8projected FP

Pat Freiermuth5.6projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗TE · Week 8

Mason Taylor6.1projected FP