Should I drop Tyler Allgeier for Keon Coleman?

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Keon Coleman is ahead by 0.4 FP this week, ahead by 14.1 FP across the remaining schedule, and ahead by 2.5 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team. They share FLEX eligibility, but this move changes your dedicated-position depth.

Forecast updated Oct 31, 2:50 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Tyler Allgeier

RB · ARI · vs DAL

Stats & schedule ›

5.7FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

46.9%rostered on ESPN-0.65 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Keon Coleman

WR · BUF · vs BAL

Stats & schedule ›

6.0FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

28.3%rostered on ESPN+0.04 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Tyler Allgeier is 46.9% rostered; Keon Coleman is 28.3% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier projects for 5.7 Standard points against DAL this week. His recent scoring average is 3.8 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 2.5%. He is rostered in 46.9% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.65 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 5.7 FP
ESPN: 6.3 FP
Sleeper: 5.9 FP
FantasyPros: 5.8 FP
FF median: 1.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.1 FP
Workload: 5.1 FP
Monte Carlo: 3.4 FP

FF median: Experimental · middle 50%: 0.0–5.3 FP · middle 80%: 0.0–9.8 FP · availability-conditional MC; separate from the FF mean. Prospective coverage is collecting.
Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 0.0–9.8 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Keon Coleman

Keon Coleman projects for 6.0 Standard points against BAL this week. His recent scoring average is 9.3 FP. He is rostered in 28.3% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.04 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 6.0 FP
ESPN: 4.6 FP
Sleeper: 5.4 FP
FantasyPros: 5.5 FP
FF median: 4.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.9 FP
Workload: 5.7 FP
Monte Carlo: 6.2 FP

FF median: Experimental · middle 50%: 2.5–8.4 FP · middle 80%: 1.1–13.0 FP. Prospective coverage is collecting.
Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 1.1–13.4 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 31, 2:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Tyler Allgeier	Keon Coleman
Next 3 weeks	13.6 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	16.7 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	46.7 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	60.8 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	19.9 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	22.3 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Tyler Allgeier	Keon Coleman
Week 8	5.7 FPvs DAL	6.0 FPvs BALHigher projection
Week 9	3.6 FPvs SEA	5.0 FPvs MINHigher projection
Week 10	4.3 FPvs LAR	5.7 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 11	4.0 FPvs KC	5.6 FPvs MIAHigher projection
Week 12	4.7 FPvs WAS	5.0 FPvs KCHigher projection
Week 13	4.6 FPvs PHI	5.5 FPvs NEHigher projection
Week 14	BYE	5.6 FPvs GBHigher projection
Week 15	4.8 FPvs NYJ	5.9 FPvs CHIHigher projection
Week 16	5.4 FPvs NOHigher projection	5.2 FPvs DEN
Week 17	5.6 FPvs LV	5.6 FPvs MIA
Week 18	4.1 FPvs SF	5.7 FPvs NYJHigher projection