Should I drop Jake Ferguson for Roschon Johnson?

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: keep Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson retains a 21.0 FP remaining-schedule advantage. The current-week projection also gives no clear reason to make this drop. Check for a lower-cost roster spot if you need coverage. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team. They share FLEX eligibility, but this move changes your dedicated-position depth.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 11:56 AM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL · vs ARI

Stats & schedule ›

4.2FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

47.8%rostered on ESPN-1.30 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Roschon Johnson

RB · CHI · vs SEA

Stats & schedule ›

1.7FF projected FP

Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

11.0%rostered on ESPN-2.13 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Jake Ferguson is 47.8% rostered; Roschon Johnson is 11.0% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson projects for 4.2 Standard points against ARI this week. His recent scoring average is 1.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 47.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 1.30 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 4.2 FP
ESPN: 3.4 FP
Sleeper: 6.3 FP
FantasyPros: 4.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.1 FP
Workload: 2.5 FP
Monte Carlo: 2.6 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: -0.4–7.0 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roschon Johnson

Roschon Johnson projects for 1.7 Standard points against SEA this week. His recent scoring average is 5.9 FP. He is rostered in 11.0% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 2.13 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 1.7 FP
Sleeper: 0.8 FP
FantasyPros: 0.7 FP
Boosted Trees: -1.8 FP
Workload: 2.9 FP
Monte Carlo: 3.5 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 0.6–7.6 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 11:30 AM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Jake Ferguson	Roschon Johnson
Next 3 weeks	10.9 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	3.0 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Remaining regular-season schedule	35.0 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	14.0 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	14.2 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	5.5 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Jake Ferguson	Roschon Johnson
Week 8	4.2 FPvs ARIHigher projection	1.7 FPvs SEA
Week 9	3.5 FPvs INDHigher projection	1.3 FPvs TB
Week 10	3.2 FPvs SFHigher projection	BYE
Week 11	3.6 FPvs TENHigher projection	1.5 FPvs NO
Week 12	3.4 FPvs PHIHigher projection	1.4 FPvs DET
Week 13	2.9 FPvs SEAHigher projection	1.2 FPvs JAC
Week 14	BYE	1.4 FPvs MIAHigher projection
Week 15	3.1 FPvs LARHigher projection	1.4 FPvs BUF
Week 16	3.5 FPvs JACHigher projection	1.4 FPvs GB
Week 17	3.5 FPvs NYGHigher projection	1.4 FPvs DET
Week 18	4.1 FPvs WASHigher projection	1.2 FPvs MIN

Outlook updated Oct 30, 12:07 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · FLEX

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

6.2 FP8.1 FP