Should I drop Matt Gay for Jake Bates?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Jake Bates is behind by 0.9 FP this week, behind by 0.5 FP across the remaining schedule, and behind by 6.8 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 3:10 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Matt Gay

K · LV · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

8.3FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

55.5%rostered on ESPN+2.79 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Jake Bates

K · DET · vs MIN

Stats & schedule ›

7.4FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

41.0%rostered on ESPN+0.02 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Matt Gay is 55.5% rostered; Jake Bates is 41.0% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Matt Gay

Matt Gay projects for 8.3 Standard points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 8.3 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 2.5%. He is rostered in 55.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 2.79 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 8.3 FP
ESPN: 10.0 FP
Sleeper: 8.6 FP
FantasyPros: 7.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.7 FP
Monte Carlo: 9.9 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 2.6–18.8 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Jake Bates

Jake Bates projects for 7.4 Standard points against MIN this week. His recent scoring average is 9.5 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 8.75%. He is rostered in 41.0% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.02 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 7.4 FP
ESPN: 8.5 FP
Sleeper: 8.4 FP
FantasyPros: 7.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.6 FP
Monte Carlo: 8.4 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 2.3–15.9 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 2:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Matt Gay	Jake Bates
Next 3 weeks	26.6 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	25.1 FP3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	92.7 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	92.2 FP11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	38.4 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	31.6 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Matt Gay	Jake Bates
Week 8	8.3 FPvs NYJHigher projection	7.4 FPvs MIN
Week 9	9.7 FPvs SFHigher projection	9.1 FPvs MIA
Week 10	8.7 FPvs SEAHigher projection	8.6 FPvs NE
Week 11	9.0 FPvs DEN	9.2 FPvs TBHigher projection
Week 12	9.1 FPvs CLEHigher projection	8.1 FPvs CHI
Week 13	BYE	8.6 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 14	9.6 FPvs LAC	9.6 FPvs TEN
Week 15	9.3 FPvs DENHigher projection	7.5 FPvs MIN
Week 16	10.4 FPvs TENHigher projection	8.7 FPvs NYG
Week 17	9.7 FPvs ARIHigher projection	7.7 FPvs CHI
Week 18	9.0 FPvs KCHigher projection	7.8 FPvs GB

Outlook updated Oct 30, 3:12 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · K

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

8.0 FP10.3 FP