Should I drop Caleb Williams for Sam Darnold?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: keep Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams retains a 40.0 FP remaining-schedule advantage. Sam Darnold leads this week by 2.1 FP, but a short-term fill-in does not justify losing the stronger projected hold. Check for a lower-cost roster spot if you need coverage. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Nov 3, 1:19 AM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs TB

Stats & schedule ›

16.5FF projected FP

Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

89.8%rostered on ESPN-0.01 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs ARI

Stats & schedule ›

18.6FF projected FP

Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

30.8%rostered on ESPN+0.14 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Caleb Williams is 89.8% rostered; Sam Darnold is 30.8% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams projects for 16.5 Standard points against TB this week. His recent scoring average is 17.5 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 7.5%. He is rostered in 89.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.01 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 16.5 FP
ESPN: 16.4 FP
Sleeper: 15.5 FP
FantasyPros: 17.4 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.9 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold projects for 18.6 Standard points against ARI this week. His recent scoring average is 14.2 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 8.75%. He is rostered in 30.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.14 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 18.6 FP
ESPN: 15.7 FP
Sleeper: 17.9 FP
FantasyPros: 17.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 18.0 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 3, 1:30 AM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Caleb Williams	Sam Darnold
Next 3 weeks	36.3 FPHigher projection2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	35.1 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Remaining regular-season schedule	171.9 FPHigher projection9/9 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	131.9 FP9/9 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	73.6 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	51.7 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Caleb Williams	Sam Darnold
Week 9	16.5 FPvs TB	18.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 10	BYE	16.6 FPvs LVHigher projection
Week 11	19.8 FPvs NOHigher projection	BYE
Week 12	22.9 FPvs DETHigher projection	12.7 FPvs SF
Week 13	17.2 FPvs JAC	17.5 FPvs DALHigher projection
Week 14	21.8 FPvs MIAHigher projection	14.8 FPvs NYG
Week 15	19.3 FPvs BUFHigher projection	13.6 FPvs PHI
Week 16	17.1 FPvs GBHigher projection	12.4 FPvs LAR
Week 17	23.3 FPvs DETHigher projection	13.8 FPvs CAR
Week 18	13.9 FPvs MINHigher projection	12.0 FPvs LAR