Should I drop Caleb Williams for Patrick Mahomes II?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: add Patrick Mahomes II for Caleb Williams

Patrick Mahomes II leads by 2.8 FP this week, 15.4 FP across the remaining schedule and does not meaningfully trail in the Weeks 15–18 forecast total. The projected outlook supports the swap if your roster can spare Caleb Williams. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Nov 3, 2:19 AM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs TB

Stats & schedule ›

16.5FF projected FP

Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

89.8%rostered on ESPN-0.01 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

19.3FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

89.5%rostered on ESPN-0.04 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Caleb Williams is 89.8% rostered; Patrick Mahomes II is 89.5% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams projects for 16.5 Standard points against TB this week. His recent scoring average is 17.5 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 7.5%. He is rostered in 89.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.01 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 16.5 FP
ESPN: 16.4 FP
Sleeper: 15.6 FP
FantasyPros: 17.4 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.9 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 19.3 Standard points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 14.0 FP. He is rostered in 89.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.04 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 19.3 FP
ESPN: 18.2 FP
Sleeper: 20.8 FP
FantasyPros: 19.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.0 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 3, 1:30 AM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Caleb Williams	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	36.3 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	59.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	171.9 FP9/9 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	187.3 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	73.6 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	74.4 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Caleb Williams	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 9	16.5 FPvs TB	19.3 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 10	BYE	17.3 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 11	19.8 FPvs NO	22.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 12	22.9 FPvs DETHigher projection	19.0 FPvs BUF
Week 13	17.2 FPvs JACHigher projection	16.4 FPvs LAR
Week 14	21.8 FPvs MIAHigher projection	18.2 FPvs CIN
Week 15	19.3 FPvs BUFHigher projection	18.2 FPvs NE
Week 16	17.1 FPvs GB	17.5 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 17	23.3 FPvs DETHigher projection	17.6 FPvs LAC
Week 18	13.9 FPvs MIN	21.2 FPvs LVHigher projection