Should I drop Josh Downs for Keon Coleman?

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Keon Coleman is behind by 0.3 FP this week, ahead by 0.7 FP across the remaining schedule, and behind by 1.2 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 2:23 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Josh Downs

WR · IND · vs JAC

Stats & schedule ›

7.7FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

63.5%rostered on ESPN-0.38 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Keon Coleman

WR · BUF · vs BAL

Stats & schedule ›

7.4FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

28.3%rostered on ESPN+0.21 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Josh Downs is 63.5% rostered; Keon Coleman is 28.3% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Josh Downs

Josh Downs projects for 7.7 Half-PPR points against JAC this week. His recent scoring average is 5.2 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 6.25%. He is rostered in 63.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.38 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 7.7 FP
ESPN: 6.6 FP
Sleeper: 8.1 FP
FantasyPros: 7.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.2 FP
Workload: 5.5 FP
Monte Carlo: 5.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 0.8–11.9 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Keon Coleman

Keon Coleman projects for 7.4 Half-PPR points against BAL this week. His recent scoring average is 10.6 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 28.3% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.21 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 7.4 FP
ESPN: 5.6 FP
Sleeper: 6.4 FP
FantasyPros: 6.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.3 FP
Workload: 7.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 7.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 1.3–15.9 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 1:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Josh Downs	Keon Coleman
Next 3 weeks	23.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	20.2 FP3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	72.6 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	73.3 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	28.1 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	26.8 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Josh Downs	Keon Coleman
Week 8	7.7 FPvs JACHigher projection	7.4 FPvs BAL
Week 9	8.5 FPvs DALHigher projection	6.0 FPvs MIN
Week 10	7.0 FPvs MIAHigher projection	6.8 FPvs NYJ
Week 11	7.2 FPvs HOUHigher projection	6.7 FPvs MIA
Week 12	6.9 FPvs NYGHigher projection	6.0 FPvs KC
Week 13	BYE	6.7 FPvs NEHigher projection
Week 14	7.2 FPvs PHIHigher projection	6.8 FPvs GB
Week 15	7.2 FPvs TENHigher projection	7.0 FPvs CHI
Week 16	7.1 FPvs CINHigher projection	6.3 FPvs DEN
Week 17	6.5 FPvs CLE	6.7 FPvs MIAHigher projection
Week 18	7.3 FPvs JACHigher projection	6.8 FPvs NYJ

Outlook updated Oct 30, 2:32 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · WR

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

7.7 FP9.4 FP