Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for Makai Lemon?

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: add Makai Lemon for Brian Thomas Jr.

Makai Lemon leads by 4.1 FP this week, 19.8 FP across the remaining schedule and does not meaningfully trail in the Weeks 15–18 forecast total. The projected outlook supports the swap if your roster can spare Brian Thomas Jr.. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 2:05 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR · JAC · vs IND

Stats & schedule ›

3.0FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

40.6%rostered on ESPN-0.74 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Makai Lemon

WR · PHI · vs WAS

Stats & schedule ›

7.0FF projected FP

Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET

39.8%rostered on ESPN+0.41 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Brian Thomas Jr. is 40.6% rostered; Makai Lemon is 39.8% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. projects for 3.0 Half-PPR points against IND this week. His recent scoring average is 0.0 FP. He is rostered in 40.6% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.74 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 3.0 FP
ESPN: 4.7 FP
Sleeper: 2.9 FP
FantasyPros: 3.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.7 FP
Workload: 3.3 FP
Monte Carlo: 3.5 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 0.1–8.0 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Makai Lemon

Makai Lemon projects for 7.0 Half-PPR points against WAS this week. His recent scoring average is 8.8 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 2.5%. He is rostered in 39.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.41 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 7.0 FP
ESPN: 7.5 FP
Sleeper: 7.5 FP
FantasyPros: 5.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.4 FP
Workload: 5.5 FP
Monte Carlo: 9.6 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 1.5–20.2 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 1:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Brian Thomas Jr.	Makai Lemon
Next 3 weeks	9.1 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	12.1 FPHigher projection2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Remaining regular-season schedule	34.3 FP11/11 scheduled games projected	54.1 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	12.9 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	20.0 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Brian Thomas Jr.	Makai Lemon
Week 8	3.0 FPvs IND	7.0 FPvs WASHigher projection
Week 9	3.0 FPvs BAL	5.1 FPvs NYGHigher projection
Week 10	3.1 FPvs TENHigher projection	BYE
Week 11	3.0 FPvs NYG	5.2 FPvs PITHigher projection
Week 12	3.2 FPvs TEN	5.9 FPvs DALHigher projection
Week 13	3.1 FPvs CHI	5.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 14	3.0 FPvs PIT	5.3 FPvs INDHigher projection
Week 15	3.2 FPvs HOU	4.4 FPvs SEAHigher projection
Week 16	3.4 FPvs DAL	5.5 FPvs HOUHigher projection
Week 17	3.3 FPvs WAS	4.8 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 18	3.0 FPvs IND	5.2 FPvs NYGHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 2:09 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · WR

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

7.7 FP9.4 FP