Should I start Drew Sample or Theo Johnson? (Half-PPR Week 16 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Theo Johnson

Week 16 · Half-PPR

Theo Johnson has the higher current FF forecast: 2.2 FP versus 1.9 FP. The 0.3-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Theo Johnson: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.
Theo Johnson: 10% matchup lift against DET.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 6:03 PM ET · Half-PPR

THE ALTERNATIVE

Drew Sample

TE · CINStats & schedule

1.9FF projected

↑ +0.3 vs ESPN

at IND

Sun 12:00 AM ET

FF PICK

Theo Johnson

TE · NYGStats & schedule

2.2FF projected

↑ +1.4 vs ESPN

at DET

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

11.015.9

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.6Sleeper 15.9FantasyPros 11.9
15.2Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.3Sleeper 13.8FantasyPros 11.0
13.6Expected FP
3
George KittleTE · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.7Sleeper 12.2FantasyPros 12.4
13.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.