Should I start Jonnu Smith or Kendre Miller? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Kendre Miller

+1.0 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Kendre Miller over Jonnu Smith for Week 13 Half-PPR: 2.2 projected points versus 1.3.

Kendre Miller: 4.3 FP recent scoring average.
Jonnu Smith: 0.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 7:42 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Kendre Miller

RB · DALStats & schedule

2.2FF projected

at SEA

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jonnu Smith

TE · GBStats & schedule

1.3FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

at NO

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Kendre Miller

FF projection: 2.2 FP
FantasyPros: 1.8 FP

Kendre Miller faces SEA in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 4.3 fantasy points.

Jonnu Smith

FF projection: 1.3 FP +0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.5 FP
FantasyPros: 2.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jonnu Smith faces NO in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Kendre Miller projects for 2.2 points in half-PPR scoring, 1.0 more than Jonnu Smith. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 7:42 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.623.4

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.1FantasyPros 21.1
23.4Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.2FantasyPros 18.7
19.2Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.9FantasyPros 17.6
18.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.